环境与自然资源系统建模

课程编码：1800840705Z1P3001H 英文名称：Systems Modelling of the Environment and Natural Resources 课时：50 学分：2.50 课程属性：专业课 主讲教师：Ayman Elshkaki等

In this course, students will build and use simulation models of selected socio-economic and biophysical systems drawn from a large spectrum of the global environmental change literature. Examples of these include but are not limited to: resources management, urbanization, dynamics of climate change, and development of new energy technologies. Throughout the course, a simulation modelling software will be used to identify key processes and relationships in systems and represent them in models. Students will also learn how to represent decision-heuristics of bounded rational human agents in models and the importance of making the distinction between actual and perceived states of key variables in determining the dynamics of systems. Students will learn to test the models and underlying assumptions and approximations that must be made in modelling, use them to explore system behavior, and assess the validity of the models. Many of these examples will also present opportunities to experiment with formulation of policy options to effectively deal with the problems addressed. Thus, students will learn to think about socio-economic and environmental problems from a systems perspective; they will also gain skills that will enable them to put this perspective into practice in real-life.
There are three learning objectives of this course that relate to systems thinking and modelling:
1) Qualitative systems thinking skills,
2) Quantitative modelling skills, and
3) An understanding of the fundamental properties of integrated socio-economic and biophysical systems.
Skills covered will include:
? Appreciating the limitations of human computational capabilities in solving complex problems including bounded rationality.
? Developing understanding and proficiency in the use of computer simulation models.
? Defining system boundaries to address problems.
? Elucidating stock and flow variables.
? Identifying key variables in a system and the interrelationships among them.
? Drawing and interpreting causal loop and stock and flow diagrams.
? Recognizing the typical dynamic behaviour patterns and their underlying structural sources.
? Performing model calibration and validation, and experimenting with model assumptions.
? Performing scenario analyses.

There is no prerequisite to this course.

第一章 Introduction to dynamic systems 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Introduction to dynamic systems
第二章 Causal loops, feedbacks, Stocks and Flows 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Causal loops and feedbacks
第2节 Stocks and Flows
第3节 Lab: Software Program Overview (Matlab and Simulink; Vensim)
第三章 Accumulating the flows, dynamic equilibrium, stability and instability and S-shaped growth 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Accumulating the flows
第2节 Dynamic equilibrium
第3节 Stability and instability
第4节 S-shaped growth
第5节 Lab: Population dynamics; other models
第四章 Material flows and stocks 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Material flows and stocks
第五章 Delays; modelling process and model validation 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Delays
第2节 Modelling process and model validation
第3节 Lab: Case study – material flow-stock models for selected metals
第六章 Introduction to oscillations with dynamics 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Introduction to oscillations
第2节 Oscillatory dynamics
第七章 Aluminium production and misperception of complex dynamics 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Aluminium production
第2节 Misperception of complex dynamics
第3节 Lab: Case study - aluminium production
第八章 Climate control, alternative energy sources 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Climate control
第2节 Alternative energy sources
第3节 Lab: Climate policy exercise
第九章 Electric vehicles, metals scarcity 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Electric vehicles
第2节 Metals scarcity
第3节 Lab: Case study – metals scarcity; material-energy nexus
第十章 Modelling electric power industry and sensitivity analysis 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Modelling electric power industry
第2节 Sensitivity analysis
第3节 Lab: Case study – metals scarcity; material-energy nexus
第十一章 Urbanization impact on environment and Spatio-temporal dynamics 3学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Urbanization impact on environment
第2节 Order and complexity, path dependence and chaos
第3节 Spatio-temporal dynamics
第4节 Lab: Behavioral model of environmental impacts of urbanization
第十二章 Introduction to computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and social accounting matrix (SAM) 3学时 钟帅
第1节 CGE model
第2节 SAM
第十三章 Overview to CGE model applying on environmental and natural resource issues 3学时 钟帅
第1节 CGE model applying on environmental issues
第2节 CGE model applying on natural resource issues
第十四章 CGE model for water use, allocation and management 3学时 钟帅
第1节 CGE model for water use, allocation and management
第2节 Lab: A CGE model with water module
第十五章 CGE model for energy use, trade and efficiency; CO2 emission reduction 3学时 钟帅
第1节 CGE model for energy use, trade and efficiency; CO2 emission reduction
第2节 Lab: A CGE model with energy module
第十六章 CGE model for environmental and resources policy 3学时 钟帅
第1节 CGE model for environmental and resource policy
第2节 Lab: Basic CGE model for China’s application (BEGIN); Simulation practices and and presentation
第十七章 Model project presentations; Concluding 2学时 Ayman Elshkaki
第1节 Model project presentations
第2节 Concluding

Ayman Elshkaki：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所研究员，博士生导师。获得荷兰莱顿大学化学工程博士学位，工业生态学方向。先后在荷兰莱顿大学、英国伦敦帝国理工学院、美国耶鲁大学从事研究工作，并获任法国国家农业研究所和拉脱维亚科学理事会的科学专家、中国自然资源部资源环境承载力重点实验室高级访问学者等职位；钟帅：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所副研究员，硕士生导师，资源经济与能矿资源研究室副主任。兼任中国自然资源学会矿产资源委员会委员、副秘书长，中国稀土学会环境经济与政策专业委员会委员。主持或参与国家自然科学基金青年基金项目、中国博士后基金面上项目、第二次青藏高原综合科学考察子专题、科技部澜沧江-湄公河专项课题、中国科学院国际合作项目课题、中国科学院学部咨询评议项目课题、中国科学院战略先导专项子课题、科技部国家重点研发计划子课题等。已发表论文40余篇，并担任多个资源环境类国际期刊以及国内核心期刊审稿人。